If President Joe Biden decides not to seek a second term in 2024, California Governor Gavin Newsom is on it.

A source involved with fundraising in California and close to the Newsom family recently told TheWrap, “After this midterm election is over, he absolutely is going to announce that he is running for the presidency once Biden announces that he is not running. No ifs, and, or buts. He will run if Biden does not.”

Unfortunately for Newsom, Biden has already suggested that a second run is all but guaranteed. Of course, “all but” leaves a lot of wiggle room. Biden says he plans to run but has not made a “firm decision” yet. Newsom has been beset by controversy in his home state but has already started picking fights with Republican governors around the country, almost as if he’s readying himself for a national platform soon.

It’s a difficult decision for Democrats eyeing the 2024 race. Biden’s popularity is rising, and Donald Trump is weighing down Republicans.

Unseating an incumbent in the middle of a two-term presidency is always a risky proposition. One thing that usually wins a president a second term is name recognition, and then, of course, there’s voter desire not to cause disruption. So if they sub a new candidate – say, Newsom – Dems lose that advantage in 2024.

However, while Biden’s popularity is on the rise, it’s not exactly a shining beacon of presidential praise. And there’s the fact that Biden is old – really fucking old. He will turn 80 this year after the midterm elections, leaving many feeling it’s time for new blood.

A lot about who the Democrats front in 2024 will depend on who the Republicans front is. But (of course) they’re waiting to hedge their bets until they see who the Democrats choose.

It’s a game of “who blinks first,” but right now, the Democrats hold the advantage with an incumbent whose popularity is rising.